A winter storm will cross the east. Does Atlanta have snow? Nashville? Washington? It’s always in the air

Do not take out the snow sleds yet.

Everything will depend on the path of the storm, which becomes less and less certain as the model predicts it. Especially if the current data entering the model is lacking.

Bookmark this interactive map to see how much snow the NWS is forecasting

“It should be emphasized that the energy leading to this storm system is still in the data-poor Pacific Ocean, and that perhaps significant model and forecast changes could still occur,” he said. declared the WPC on Wednesday morning.

The snow and ice forecast looks like you’re trying to get a hole-in-one on a par-three in golf, says CNN meteorologist Chad Myers. “The best golfers can touch the green, but very few shots actually go into the hole.”

“While the track is far from certain, models tell us that a major winter storm is on its way to parts of the southeast and along the east coast,” Myers adds. “Impossible snow-covered trips, major ice storm power outages and wind gusts of over 40 mph are all at stake, and right now the storm’s path is key. “

What we can say about the forecast

The storm is currently located in the Pacific Ocean.

Located over the North Pacific, this system has more than 3,000 miles to travel before impacting the eastern United States – and forecasters a few days to refine the forecast.

This storm is expected to fall in the Upper Midwest late Thursday through Friday and will likely bring impacting winter conditions.

“This next storm system is poised to produce heavy snow and will bring dangerous travel conditions to parts of the Northern and Midwestern Plains to end the work week,” warns the WPC.

Winter weather watches are already posted for parts of South Dakota, Minnesota and Iowa for several inches of snow and wind gusts above 25 mph.

Snow will continue south through Missouri and Arkansas on Friday before some type of wintry weather hits the deep south over the weekend.

Rain is likely to turn to snow across the Ozarks, but the distance south of that snow depends on the distance south of the storm system.

Hence the “great uncertainty”.

“If the storm moves further north than expected, there will be less snow and more ice,” Myers said. “Conversely, a storm track that moves further south will cause more cooler air and change some of that potential ice to snow instead.”

It will radically change who gets what and where.

Why we buy milk, bread and toilet paper when it snows

If the northern route goes, Nashville residents will see rain and winter mix together before they see snow. But if the southerly route occurs, they will more likely be in the snow all the time.

“This event certainly has the potential to change, perhaps not amounting to any build-up or perhaps producing just over an inch or 2, so stay tuned,” the NWS said in Nashville.

It’s only been a week since their last snow which hampered traffic and left the city in a blanket of white matter.

Depending on the distance to the south of the storm, it could not only bring snow deeper south through Mississippi, Alabama and Georgia, but it could also provide Atlanta’s first measurable snowfall in four years. .

Atlanta could see its first measurable snowfall in nearly 1,500 days

Surprising, perhaps, to many of you, Atlanta usually doesn’t spend that long between snowstorms. This southern city sees on average more than two inches of snow per year.

If a winter storm is coming, read this
However, “it has been 1454 days since the last time our Atlanta location saw measurable snowfall, good enough for the second longest streak on record”, the Atlanta National Weather Service office tweeted on Tuesday.

Of course, whenever there’s a hint of snow in the South, meteorologists start talking about it days and days in advance.

This means that there is a HUGE potential for it not to even happen. Which is normal for a four-day Sunday forecast.

It’s plausible that Atlanta could record its first measurable – 0.1 inch or more – of snow since January 2018.

It all depends on the perfect alignment of cold air and humid air at the right time. If the cold air comes in too late or the humidity leaves too early, the city will only see light rain similar to Seattle. The city might look more like an ice rink if the timing between these two air masses is a bit off.

This rain, ice or snow question is one that many southerners will be asking themselves over the next few days, hopefully consulting their trusted meteorologist with the latest forecast.

The storm follows the east coast

Snow will certainly fall over the Great Smoky Mountains of the Carolinas and in eastern Tennessee. Yet in the lower altitudes ice will undoubtedly be possible.

“While confidence remains low about the exact time, types of precipitation and accumulations, confidence is increasing that the types of precipitation will not be limited to rain and snow,” the Raleigh NWS tweeted Wednesday morning.

If the situation improves properly, parts of the Carolinas could experience a significant glacial event.

Track different forecast models with CNN’s storm tracker
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On the night of Sunday to Monday, the storm crossed Virginia. At this point, the question now is how far the storm will go east or west.

“As is so often the case with these storms, the runway, as well as the warm air aloft, is going to be key to knowing who gets an all-snow event versus who gets a winter mix and who can even just receive a cold rain, ”the Washington, DC meteorological office said.

If the storm approaches the coast or even just off the coast, it will bring more snow to Virginia, Washington and the I-95 corridor on Monday. But if the storm stays inland, Virginia could see more of a winter mix, and major cities on the east coast see mostly rain.

“The guidance is starting to at least come to an agreement that the areas west of the I-95 corridor could be prone to a high impact winter storm, while the I-95 corridor and areas to the east contain still some uncertainty, ”NWS Washington said. “Most of the evidence at this point is at least for a strong low going up the east coast, it’s just a matter of proximity to the coast.”

As is often the case, “20 miles can make all the difference,” they add.

Every six hours or so, another computer model will kick in and meteorologists will frantically start digesting the latest data and making new predictions.

So expect a lot of back-and-forth with this storm. Don’t focus on the worst-case scenario or the best-case scenario for your area. However, be prepared.

“The key is to be careful of the storm, but don’t panic,” Myers says. “You don’t have to look very far back to the big ‘potential’ winter storm around Christmas to find models that have completely exploded at this longer range.”

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